Stealing Home - A Baseball Blog By Morisato

Four American League West Former Prospects On The Bubble

Newly returned from Vegas, we complete our trip around the American League:

• Los Angeles Angels – Brandon Wood (3B).  Once regarded to be among the most elite of prospects, Wood's star has fallen hard since his breakout season in 2005 for Rancho Cucamonga.  In reality, his MVP caliber season should have been more heavily scrutinized.  Wood was producing in a extreme hitters league, and his K to Walk Ration was almost three to one.  He hasn't improved it lately, and his numbers in the minors since then have been much more pedestrian.  While the Angels are typically reluctant to give their youngsters extended shots unless given reason to, (witness their treatment of Kendry Morales, who seems highly unlikely to give the Angels a sweetheart of an extension for all that time they wanted to roll with Casey Kotchman at first base), Wood hasn't given them much reason to regret their treatment of him.  With Maicer Izturis to return next season, plus the Angels' rumored lust for Adrian Beltre, Wood's days are numbered.
• Oakland Athletics – Travis Buck (RF).  Buck was once deemed to be an outfielder in the mold of Texas Ranger near diety Rusty Greer.  And in his rookie year in 2008, he certainly looked the part.  However, Buck had been rushed to the majors, having jumped from Double A to Oakland, and once he got hurt, he was never able to regain momentum.  Between injuries, inconsistency, and the rise of several other outfielders in the Bay, there isn't room for Buck anymore.  With his options exhausted, look for him to be dealt for almost nothing, or non-tendered. 
• Seattle Mariners - Justin Smoak (1B).  Smoak has shown the ability to work the count, but hasn't shown a lot of the power that made him such a high prospect in the first place.  His weakness against left handers, which a minor note a year ago, is now a concern.  While he's hit better since returning to the majors in September, he'll need to continue to mash if he's to justify the Cliff Lee trade in the eyes of the organization.  The acquisition of Josh Lueke, whose criminal history was shockingly not known at the time of the acquisition, has created quite a bit of fire on an organization that doesn't need any more bad press.
• Texas Rangers – Chris Davis (1B).  Taylor Teagarden was my first choice, but it occured to me that he could have a long career as a backup.  After some thinking, I realized that Davis was the obvious choice.  The only reason why I hadn't thought about him is that he has been virtually invisible this season.  Davis, along with Smoak, once gave Ranger fans dreams of a slugging middle of the order that was reminiscent of the Bash Brothers.  However, that hasn’t come to pass.  Smoak disappointed, then got traded, and Davis has disappointed.  While he can be a tolerable defensive first or third baseman, Davis' issues come from that fact that he is doing his best imitation of a wind turbine at the plate.  With Mitch Moreland's star rising in the organization, and a bumper crop of first baseman available this off-season, Davis may be in trouble.

Tomorrow:  The National League East

Breaking Down The Lee Deal

Well, it's a little too late to get right on the breakdown of the deal, but here it is for those who are interested on my take.

The Rangers traded four players for Lee and reliever Mark Lowe, a power righty who is out for the year, and is inconsistent when he is active.  So let's break it down for just Lee's impact on the Rangers.

Lee projects to be the Rangers' staff ace, though he is notoriously bad at RBIA.  While he has proven he can pitch in a band box in Philadelphia, Philly isn't as hot as Dallas is.  If the Rangers are to make the most of Lee's contributions, they should hope the schedule falls with him pitching most of his starts on the road.  It won't do well for the box office reciepts, but it would make for some more winnable games.

Nonetheless, Lee should deepen the rotation, pushing Lewis and Wilson to the second and third starter roles, with Rich Harden likely returning as the fourth starter when he's off the disabled list.  Hunter and Feldman will likely mix and match the fourth and fifth spots, with the loser becoming a long man once Harden returns.  Overall, it's a nice addition, and will lessen the need to rush Derek Holland back from the DL, and allow him to work his kinks out in Triple A.

It's an addition that should secure the Rangers their first playoff appearance in 11 years, and gives them a punchers chance against their likely opponent, the Yankees, with the Rangers able to have a three man rotation of Lee, Lewis, and Wilson.

Still, one thing I should caution people is that Lee is not staying in Dallas.  He's a goner once free agency kicks in, whether or not the Rangers have their ownership situation resolved.  He'll bring back at least a supplemental pick, which the Rangers have killed in the past few years (Hunter and Julio Borbon were supp. picks, and two more prospects, Tanner Scheppers and Neil Ramirez, have shown promise.)  I'm not counting on the extra first round pick, as that's not a given and likely to be in the 20's.  Still, if the ownership situation is resolved, look for Texas to pump some huge money in next year's draft, given the success the farm system has produced in the past couple of years.

However, what the Rangers gave up strung in terms of prospects, with first baseman Justin Smoak, right handers Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke, and second baseman Matt Lawson also in the deal.

The biggest fish, and the one with the biggest potential for impact, is Smoak.  Smoak was the 11th overall pick in 2008, and reach the majors this year when Chris Davis flamed out.  Smoak is an excellent defensive first baseman, and projects to have solid power potential.  However, there are some concerns.  Smoak has displayed a weakness against hitting lefties since he turned pro, and isn't an athletic player.  If the Mariners can help him refine his swing and allow him to tap into his power, he can be a stud.  Otherwise, Smoak becomes a platoon player, or at the very least a thinner Ryan Howard.

As for the rest of the package, there’s not a whole lot of upside.  Blake Beavan, who was probably the piece that was included in order to gain cash from Seattle, he is not a prospect to get too torn up about.  Beavan has evolved from a pure power arm to a innings eater that likely won’t evolve much past a 4^th starter.  And while that will be valuable, he’s not someone that will inspire John Danks-Adrian Gonzalez level bitching about.  Josh Lueke is a right hander that has true power stuff in mid 90’s heat and a solid slider.  He could be a exceptional setup man, but that’s only if he’s able to get his shit together after he was accused of rape in 2009, and later pled guilty to a lesser charge.  Matt Lawson is a second baseman that doesn’t play second base well and is probably nothing more than just organizational filler. 

There is also something that is also rather noticeable from the Rangers’ talent standpoint that should be noticed.  Of the Rangers’ bonafide 1^st Rounders (not counting the supplemental rounds), not a single first round pick since 2006 remains in the organization.  Matthew Purke (2009) was unsigned, and Bevan’s draft mate, Michael Main, was traded earlier this month for Bengie Molina.  All in all, it’s not a troubling development (as the Rangers have struck gold with several later round picks, international signings, and trades), but it is one that shouldn’t continue in the future.  First round picks are gold, and shouldn’t be wasted.

All in all, it's a solid deal for both sides, though there is the potential for bust on both sides.  The tipping of the scale all depends on whether Lee delievers the Rangers to the postseason or if Smoak develops into an All Star, like he was projected as late as last year.  

Mariners Don't See Lee's Draft Picks As Being Enough Compensation

Jole Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Mariners are seeking a blue chip prospect in any Lee trade.  While Lee has been traded for a lot less, I think the Mariners are reading the future market for Lee's services.   

Another source had the Cardinals linked to Lee, with them possibly dangling Shelby Miller in exchange for him.  Dave Cameron, the other day, suggested that a trade package centered around lefty Martin Perez, who is the Rangers' top pitching prospect, would suffice.

Those are all high prices, though probably warrented for Lee.  But what can be taken from this is that, in my opinion, the Mariners are wondering is just how valuable the two compensation draft picks that Lee would bring back

My hypothesis is that the Mariners are afraid of a larger market team signing Lee, then signing another high profile free agent, minimizing their potential return.  While getting an extra draft pick is nice, it wouldn’t have the same impact as getting a potential blue chip that has already been paid their bonus, and has a closer success rate to the majors.

Plus, as we saw with the Brewers and C.C. Sabathia, sometimes those compensation picks aren't what you're hoping for.

It's a high price to pay, but the Mariners are trying to cash in for the future.  However, asking for a blue chipper and getting one are two different stories, as the Mariners will soon find out.

 

Mariners Really Didn't Get Much Of A Deal

Well, the Mariners have extended Felix Hernandez, their young ace, to a five year, $78 million deal. Dave Cameron of Lookout Landing and Fangraphs fame is lauding it as a solid move, and that Hernandez left some cash on the table.

But is it really. Did the Mariners really get a deal here?

No.

Here's what Jon Heyman had on the contract breakdown.

$3.5 million Signing Bonus. Salaries of $6.5 million (2010), $10 million (2011), $18.5 million (2012), $19.5 million (2013), $20 million (2014).

2010 and 2011 were his final two arbitration years. After that, the Mariners are essentially paying free agent money to Hernandez.

So really, there wasn't much of a discount. All the Mariners did was essentially give him a 3 year. $58 million deal, which he'll then use to launch himself out of Seattle at the age of 28. While keeping Hernandez right now is a godsend, the Mariners really didn't buy themselves much more time than what they already had.

WTF?!

According to Rotoworld, the Seattle Mariners have traded former shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt to the Kansas City Royals for two ptichers, right handers Derrick Saito and Dan Cortes.

How, I ask, HOW? is this a good deal for the Royals?

Betancourt hasn't been a good shortstop for at least two years, he has had run ins with coaches, had his work ethic questioned, and by the way can't hit for power, contact, or walk for that matter.  He also isn't cheap either, as he makes $3 million next year, $4 million in 2011, and mercifully can be bought out for $2 million in 2012, just in time for the Mayan Apolcalypse. 

In return, they get Saito, who is a reliever that doesn't have much of a big league future, and Cortes, who was Baseball America's third best royals prospect in 2009.  Cortes throws in the low 90's, has good breaking stuff when he has an idea of where it's going, and has shown durability as a starter.

How in God's name did you trade that, AND not get cash relief in return.

I don’t how Jack Zduriencik was able to move that black hole at shortstop, but he did, and got something of value in return.  Slowly, but surely, the Mariners are rapidly rebuilding their way to respectability. 

As for Kansas City, this could be one of the final laundry list of deals that could get Dayton Moore fired.  I don't know how you can present this in a good light.  I just don't.

Finding A Front Of The Rotation Starter For The Southside

Staying on the White Sox for a moment, Kenny Williams, according to Joe Crowley, is trying his damndest to try and find another front of the rotation guy for his squad.  He tried, and failed, to get Jake Peavy, for what I considered to be a laugable deal, but the White Sox could try and move other pieces.  What matters is who they could realistically get.

Eric Bedard is pitching excellent, and the Mariners have stated that they would like to recieve a similar package back for what they traded for him.  That ain't happening.  He's probably the most available and the easiest to acquire of the potential trade market pitchers, with a potential deal centering around Aaron Poreda, a left handed flamethrower, and possibly some other young talent that lies somewhere in the south side's horrific farm system.  I'm just not sure that Seattle, after giving up so much talent, would be willing to just punt on Bedard.  And while the Mariners could ask for John Danks, I don't think the White Sox would give him up for a one year rental (though I think Gavin Floyd is very much available.)

Another name thrown around is Roy Oswalt.  Oswalt has the benefit of a multi-year contract, meaning you get him for more than this year.  But he's also older, has a no trade clause, and has a squad that would demand top talent back in return.  They would likely insist on both Danks brothers in return for Oswalt, which I think would kill all potential deals.  Nor do I think the Astros would be satisfied with the rather meager return offered for Peavy.  Unlike San Diego, Houston is not financially motivated to make a deal, and could afford to keep Oswalt as long as they want.  

Another, more affordable option, would be Doug Davis, who has pitched well for Arizona, and leaves as a free agent.  However, Davis would be leaving the easier league (though he does pitch in a hitter's park) and isn't quite the upgrade Williams is looking for.  However, Davis also wouldn't cost as much, and Clayton Richard alone would be enough.

Whatever happens, you better believe that Williams is trolling the waters for any sort of pitching.  And who knows, we might just see a unconventional name pop up in the talks.  

Swapping Shitty Shortstops

Apparently, the Mariners and Pirates have talked about an exchange of shitty shortstops, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times.  In this proposed deal, the Pirates and Mariners would essentially be swapping Jack Wilson and Yuniesky Betancourt for each other. 

For the life of me, I can’t see why?  Both shortstops are signed to undesirable contracts, and neither can really hit, hit for power, or walk.  However, there are two differences that should be noted:

Wilson, while older, is regarded to be the better defender.  Betancourt is younger, and is regarded to be a potential project, one that could eventually become a Gold Glover, and a legitimate one at that.  However, Wilson’s contract ends this year, with him being owed another $5.6 million, plus a $600,000 buyout for next year.  Betancourt is owed another $1.5 million this year, $3 million in 2010, $4 million in 2011, and a $2 million buyout for 2012.

The only reason why I could see the Pirates remotely entertaining this deal is because they might seek some cost certainty in the future with Betancourt’s deal.  But even then, wouldn’t it be more productive just to bring Wilson back?  I don’t get it.

Mariners Moves...Puzzling...To Say The Least

On the heels of my recent commentary on the move of Brandon Morrow to the bullpen full time comes the news that the Mariners are going to move 2007 First Rounder Philipe Aumont to the bullpen because they want to fast track him and they liked what they saw in the World Baseball Classic.

Ummm, what?

Aumont is only 20 years old, and by all accounts, has the quality of stuff to become a dominant big league starter in the major leagues.  He throws a mean sinker and a very nice slider.  In fact, if given a third pitch and some experience, the Mariners could have a starter with a similar style to Brandon Webb.  That's a huge asset to have, and one that should be wasted.

Instead, the Mariners are getting a little too panicky about some arm issues, and seem to want to fast track Aumont to the major leagues, for some unknown reason or another.  The question again, is why?  The Mariners should be sellers at the deadline, trading off Eric Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, the remains of Carlos SIlva, Yulieski Betancourt, Kenji Johjima, Jose Lopez, and if the right deal comes along, Felix Hernandez for cheap, high ceiling talent.  Bill Bavasi didn't leave a house that was missing a few doors and windows for it to be able to reach contention.  The whole thing needs to be dynamited, and the sooner it is, the better off they'll be.

Do you want to know what the worst part is?

With Morrow now a reliever, as is Aumont, and the drafting of Josh Fields last year, the Mariners have picked up bullpen guys with the picks they are supposed to be using to rebuild their franchise.  And other than Fields, who was a reliever when they got him, it didn't have to be this way.  But mismanagment by Seattle has instead cost the Mariners what should be their top two pitching prospects.

Instead, the Mariners are going to have a hell of a 7th, 8th, and 9th inning combination.  I hope there's a rotation to get them there.

However, if there is a bright side to all of this, it would be the humor in the comments section of Lookout Landing.  Check it out for some chuckles.  

Not that they're laughing.

Morrow Decision Makes The Josh Fields Decision All That Much Worse

The Mariners have recently made it known that Brendan Morrow will return to relieving and will likely be the Mariners' closer this year.  This apparently was at the decision of Morrow, not the Mariners.

In all honesty, this decision shouldn't have been made.  In all honesty, Morrow should be trying to make the Mariners right now, after spending three years in the minors.  His diabetic condition can be worked around.  His stuff is clearly much better suited for starting, but because Bill Bavasi wanted to save his job, he permitted Morrow making the squad out of Spring Training.  And even if he is meant to relieve in the future, why in God's name isn't he in Triple A, where he'd be able to at least continue developing and build up stamina until he's completely healthy?

Here's the other issue I have with the decision.  If Morrow is now a closer, what does this do with Josh Fields?  

Fields was drafted in the first round last year, possibly with the intention of allowing the Mariners to be able to move Morrow back as a starter now that a "closer of the future" had been picked up.

Except he's not that anymore, is he?

Instead, now the Mariners have one draft pick they completely bungled (before you mention Tim Lincecum being available, my opinion is that they probably would have done the same thing to him), they now have a pair.  Morrow, who should have always been developed as a starter, and Fields, who should have been allowed to re-enter the draft, giving the Mariners three first round draft picks to try and rebuild their farm system with.

Instead, they have a unproven closer, and a closer candidate.  Hope they have leads to hold onto.