With the Red Sox's season pretty much over, it seems that fans and management alike are turning the page to 2011. And in his most recent column, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald feels that the Red Sox should look into acquiring Phillies rightfielder Jayson Werth.
The appeal isn't hard to see. Werth is a excellent player, providing a potential right handed power source that also plays a solid right field. While Scott Boras is already hyping Werth's potential in centerfield, I personally wouldn't play him there due to his prior history of knee problems. Still, the question has to be asked, is there room for Werth?
Boston has three outfielders under contract for next season: Mike Cameron (owed $7.75 million), J.D. "The Iron Man" Drew ($14 million), and Jacoby Ellsbury (first year of arbitration, let's say it pays him a cool million or so). That's also not including Joshua Reddick and Ryan Kalish, two promising young outfielders that could contribute.
So the question is, can the Red Sox make room for Werth?
The answer is yes, with the right moves.
For starters, the Red Sox can create space by moving Jacoby Ellsbury. While his value is at a all time low right now, there would be some takers for an affordable left fielder for next season. The Red Sox could then move Drew to left field, allowing the more agile Werth to man Fenway’s spacious right field.
Then, when 2011 passes, Drew and Cameron are allowed to leave via free agency, allowing Reddick and Kalish to slot into the outfield, or allows the Red Sox to obtain a second outfielder via trade.
In terms of a short term fix, it sounds great. The Red Sox would have a solid right handed bat in the middle of their lineup, and wouldn’t suffer defensively from it. However, there are some concerns about Werth that should be worth mentioning (no pun intended).
For starters, Werth will be entering the free agent market at the age of 31, meaning that he’s in his prime now and likely won’t improve beyond what he’s doing now. Second, he’s going to want to break the bank on his current contract, as this is his only shot of cashing in. With Scott Boras already tossing out Matt Holliday as a comparison, it’s safe to say that any contract will be between 6 or 7 years.
Third, my question is just how long Werth can stay productive. He’s a fairly late bloomer, as he was rather useless until his began his career with the Phillies. This may be a bit of an apples and oranges comparison, but his career strikes me a bit like Travis Hafner, another late bloomer whose peak collapsed earlier than expected. While Werth is much more athletic than Hafner, it’s a nagging comparison that just won’t leave the back of my mind.
Maybe Werth will age gracefully. Maybe he won’t. But if the Red Sox are seeking to upgrade their lineup, they could do a lot worse than Werth. In my opinion, he’ll more than justify the loss of a first round draft pick and the first three years will be more than worth it. It’s the last two or three years of his contract that, I feel, the Red Sox will regret their investment.
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