It's that time of year again.
Time for me to put out my first mock draft of the MLB Draft Season.
Because it's the first draft, it's only going to have the first 32 picks. The next draft, likely to be published in three weeks or so, will have the sandwich rounds. This year, I'm hoping to go into the second round, though that might be pushing it.
Anyhow, enough of my blabbering. On with the mock!
1st Overall – The Washington Nationals
Bryce Harper (C), College Of Southern Nevada
Harper is the defacto top prospect here, and for the moment, will slot at the top of the draft. Harper is regarded to be the best young prep hitting prospect since Justin Upton back in 2005. He's been followed by prospect hounds every since he was around 14. Harper is not actually supposed to be eligible for this draft, but instead went to get his GED and enrolled in a junior college on the advice of his parents and his representative, making him eligible for next year. Anyhow, Harper is a massive kid that is regarded to be a future Gold Glover, has excellent power (he has hit the longest home run in Tropicana Field History) and has a quick, smooth swing that projects for solid contact. Overall, scouts feel he could have a Joe Mauer like impact in the majors, though that may be a bit optimistic in my opinion. However, it should be noted that unlike last year’s Number One overall, Harper isn’t a consensus number one. It’s very possible that if he struggles or if his price tag gets far too ridiculous, the Nationals could pass.
2nd Overall – The Pittsburgh Pirates
Anthony Ranaudo (RHP), LSU
A former Ranger draft pick (11th round, 2007), Ranaudo has been dominant for LSU. He had an impressive sophomore year, going 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA, with 147 K’s in 110 innings. However, some people were down on him because he was gassed in the College World Series. The first thing that catches you about Ranaudo is that he’s an absolutely massive pitcher, standing at 6-7. He doesn’t have one dominant pitch, but he has a good three pitch arsenal that all grades above average. His fastball clocks in the low 90’s, and he has touched 95 in the past. He also throws a curveball and a changeup that both grade as above average. He has a lot of deception in his delivery, as well as good command as well. However, he’s going to get knocked because of his lack of a knock out offering, and his representation isn’t going to do the Pirates any favors (hint: rhymes with Mott Moras). Overall, I think the pirates will tag him because of his closeness to the majors. This is far from a sure thing, as there is a chance Harper will be here, or that one of the other members of the top five could go out of their minds.
3rd Overall – The Baltimore Orioles
Christian Colon (SS), Cal State Fullerton
Possibly the best college positional players, Colon had an excellent season for the Titans, hitting .357/.438/.529 with 8 homers in 62 games. Colon doesn’t have standout tools but he’s a solid hitter with a good eye and plate discipline. He should draw more than his share of walks and he makes solid contact with the ball. He has average power and speed for the position. Colon is a fundamentally sound fielder with solid instincts and range. There is still some concern that he will probably be a second baseman in the end, but he has the toolset to stay at short. Overall, Colon will probably go third to the Orioles, who could use a shortstop of the future, or a potential successor from Brian Roberts at second. Either way, he would join a promising young core for the O’s. In the event they choose to go with the best overall talent, James Taillon would also go here.
4th Overall – The Kansas City Royals
Jameson Taillon (RHP), Texas High School
Arguably the best arm in the draft, Taillon has drawn comparisons to Stephen Strasburg in terms of his stuff. Standing at 6-7, Taillon is blessed with a power pitchers frame and power stuff. He throws in the low 90’s, touching 96. It’s possible he might even gain velocity as he ages. He throws a power curve that is a solid out pitch. He is working on developing a changeup as well. However, he’s not very athletic and his delivery is a bit rough. Overall,Taillon could go anywhere from first to fourth, but this is probably the lowest he goes unless his elbow explodes. Even then, he’d get a huge contract from a big market club to forgo his Rice commitment.
5th Overall – The Cleveland Indians
Drew Pomeranz (LHP), Ole Miss
Drafted by Texas in the 12th round of the 2007 draft, Pomeranz was rumored to have signed just before the deadline. Obviously that didn’t happen, but whatever the case, Pomeranz’s decision will payoff for him in 2010, after he went 8-4 with a 3.40 ERA, striking out 124 and walking just 37 over 95 1/3 innings. He’s quite possibly the best college lefty in the draft, sitting in the low 90’s on his fastball, touching 94. He combines it with a spike curveball that is very effective, and also has a changeup that looks like a usable pitch. His delivery does have some funk to it, but overall he looks like a potential top ten pick at the least. Like all of these picks, Pomeranz isn’t a lock to go here either.
6th Overall – The Arizona Diamondbacks
A.J. Cole (RHP), Florida High School
The second best prep arm behind Taillon, Cole himself has some big time projection on him. He has a loose arm, and his frame is fairly projectable. He throws a fastball in the low 90’s, reaching 95. Cole has hit 98 at times as well. He also throws a biting curveball that rates as a plus pitch as well. Cole has not developed his changeup much, but that’s typical among prep prospects. It shows the potential to become a average pitch, and a usable weapon against lefties. His mechanics don’t show any problems. All in all, he also has ace potential if he’s able to maximize his potential. The Diamondbacks, who lack much starting pitching depth in their system, have the opportunity to nab the second best young pitcher in the draft at this spot.
7th Overall – The New York Mets
Alex Wimmers (RHP), Ohio State
The Mets are notoriously stingy in the draft, and have more or less stayed around slot. With that in mind, I passed on some of the other higher upside kids, and went for more of a sure thing. Wimmers doesn’t have a large frame, but he is similar to Mike Leake and has excellent command and control over his stuff. He finished in the top five of the NCAA Division One Schools in strikeouts thanks to it. His fastball is average, about the low 90’s, but his off-speed pitches show promise. His curveball is his best pitch, a true wipeout pitch with good movement. His changeup is also an above average pitch, giving him an effective three pitch mix. All in all, Wimmers should be taken high, and won’t cost much more over slot. He’s got low upside, but he also should be a solid back of the rotation guy.
8th Overall – The Houston Astros
Chris Sale (LHP), Florida Gulf Coast
Zack Cox is tempting here, but he also isn’t likely to sign for slot. As a result, the Astros will turn for a bit more certainty. Sale burst on the scene after a successful Cap Cod performance in 2009. As a result, he’s going to get some notice as far as a first round arm is concerned. Sale has a big frame, allowing him to potentially add to his 89-92 mph fastball. The pitch has good sink to it, thanks to his low ¾ arm slot. Sale also has a solid slider that should be an out pitch. He also has a changeup that has the potential to be a good offering, but he’ll need to improve it and keep it from elevating up in the strike zone. Sale is able to get results from his arsenal thanks to his impressive command. The one real knock on him is that none of his pitches are outstanding. He should be a average back of the rotation guy in the majors, but one that has a relatively low bust possibility.
9th Overall – The San Diego Padres
Deck McGuire (RHP), Georgia Tech
I’m not sure how the Padres will draft, with the new regime and all. However, I’ll base it off of the typical age old addage: draft the best player available. McGuire emerged as the ace of the Yellow Jackets’ rotation this past year. McGuire has a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s, but has heavy sink. He compliments it with a hard slider that is a plus pitch. McGuire also has a changeup, but while it is a solid pitch, it’s not anywhere near the slider. Still, McGuire has all the physical tools to be a quality pitcher, with only some improvement in his command holding him back from being a solid Number Two/Three in the majors. He’ll also
10th Overall – The Oakland Athletics
Karsten Whitson (RHP), Florida High School
The second Florida prep arm (and third pitcher from Florida period) in this mock draft, Whitson is another pitcher that should get more press than he gets. He’s got a excellent frame with plenty of projection, and while he doesn’t throw as hard as Taillon or Cole, he’s able to get his fastball up to 94 with plenty of sink. He throws a good slider, and a average curveball. However, Whitson’s issue is that he doesn’t command his stuff well, which will only come from experience. Still, he does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, and should be able to develop into a groundball starter in time.
11th Overall – The Toronto Blue Jays
Zack Cox (3B), Arkansas
A draft eligible sophomore, Cox also happens to be one of the top hitters in the college class. Cox has a quick swing that allows him to make contact, but he also has plus power that will allow him to drive the ball out of the park. However, he is a free swinger and will have to improve his plate discipline if he’s to hit for an acceptable average and draw walks. He’s an athletic defender with good hands, range and an arm to play third. Overall, Cox shows quite a bit of potential, and he’ll likely be a solid fit for Toronto (Brett Wallace isn’t a third baseman guys.)
12th Overall – The Cincinnati Reds
Manny Machado (SS), Florida High School
Regarded to be the best prep shortstop candidate in the draft, Machado is an athletic player should be able to remain at shortstop. He shows a strong arm, solid instincts, and average range, along with a tall and wiry build that also projects well for him to remain at shortstop. He shouldn’t lose too much range as he fills out. However, despite him shown the potential of being a plus defender, Machado can be sloppy, missing the routine play in favor of the spectacular one. His bat also inspires a lot of questions. From the video I’ve seen on him, Machado has a bat wrap at the beginning of his swing, which tends to lengthen his swing a bit. However, he also shows good bat speed, and has shown the ability to hit with Team USA. Overall, Machado will have teams that will have varying degrees of how they rate him. I think he’s going to go here.
13th Overall – The Chicago White Sox
Justin O’Conner (SS), Indiana High School
A early personal favorite of mine, O’Connor is an excellent prep shortstop that should be ranked up high with Machado and Cabrera as a top prospect. O’Connor has excellent range and a strong arm to remain at short (he can also touch 96 as a pitcher). He also shows a good swing and shows the ability to make contact. O’Conner has also shown the ability to hit for power, as he hit 19 home runs in his junior year. All in all, he’s the best two way player in the class. He’s a logical fit here for the White Sox.
14th Overall – The Milwaukee Brewers
Bryce Brentz (CF/RF), Middle Tennessee State
Brentz was drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 30th round of the 2007 draft as a pitcher, but has since become one of the best outfield prospects in the college ranks. Brentz’s bat is his best tool, as he will hit for average and should hit for above average power. He’s got excellent bat speed and fairly good pitch recognition. However, he is an overly aggressive hitter, which results in him striking out a lot. That is a concern in the long term. Defensively, Brentz profiles well as a right fielder, thanks to his range and his strong arm. He is going to get his knocks on his stats because he plays in a smaller conference. Still, he deserves to be ranked as one of the top college outfield talents available in this draft. With the Brewers seeking more youth in their outfield, and with their aggressive shopping of Corey Hart, this seems like a solid fit.
15th Overall – The Texas Rangers (Compensation For Matt Purke)
Brandon Workman (RHP), Texas
Workman has been rated as a high ceiling talent since he drafted by the Phillies in the 3rd round back in 2007. However, Workman instead went to Texas and has been rolling ever since, until he ran out of gas during the Cape Cod season. Workman throws his fastball in the low 90’s, touching 94 with good movement. He throws a spike curveball that is a borderline plus at times. His changeup is coming along, and should be average. His mechanics aren’t great, but he repeats if fairly well. One thing that does stand out is that his command still leaves a lot to be desired, and will ultimately hinder his progress. Overall, he’ll likely be inexpensive, and if his command improves, he could be a solid middle of the rotation workhorse. Because this pick isn’t protected, and with Rangers ownership still in a state of flux, this is where he’ll likely be popped.
16th Overall – The Chicago Cubs
LeVon Washington (CF), Florida Junior College
A first round pick of the Rays, Washington should see his stock rise in what is looking like a average at best college crop. His best quality is his speed, as he's able to run out base hits, steal bases, and cover a lot of ground in centerfield. He doesn't have great power, but his speed will help him earn extra bases. He lacks a great arm in center, but if he gains strength coming back from a labrum surgery, it should be adequate. Washington has good bat speed and should hit for average, and if he improves his plate discipline, he should be a capable leadoff man. He takes some bat routes in center right now, and his game overall is still a bit rough. But he should be a solid centerfielder, and one that will likely catch the Cubs' attention. The problem here is that he's a Boras client, which should make for some interesting negotiations, as Washington's draft negotiations were largely on backburner because of Stephen Strasburg's negotiations. It figures to be the same this year, with Bryce Harper likely the top pick (right now, anyway).
17th Overall – The Tampa Bay Rays
Yasmani Grandal (C), Miami
One of the bigger, but not elite, catching talents from the 2009, Grandal fell after a inconsistent senior season. He was taken in the later rounds by the Red Sox, but failed to come to terms with them. Grandal sought a seven figure bonus to skip college. With solid defense behind the bag, the ability to hit for power and above average plate discipline, Grandal will get his money and more in the top half of the first round. The Rays lack any sort of long term solution at catcher, and Grandal could rise quickly.
18th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For Chone Figgins)
Stetson Allie (SS/RHP), Ohio High School
A two way prospect, Allie is a legitimate prospect as a shortstop and as a pitcher. As a positional player, Allie has a strong arm, solid range, and a quick swing. He also is able to hit for some pop. However, as he matures, he’ll likely have to move over to third base. As for his potential on the mound, Allie has a quick arm that allows him to throw in the upper 90’s. He couples it with a slider that allows him to have a second solid offering. However, Allie also has a delivery that has a lot of effort, which may result in him having to move to the bullpen in time.
19th Overall – The Detroit Tigers
James Paxton (LHP), Kentucky
Provided that he’s not suspended by the NCAA in their continued attack on amateurs that turn to agents for future career advice, Paxton is likely gone here. Paxton has potetial Number Two starter stuff. He throws in the mid 90’s, touching 98, and features a solid curveball and a changeup. He is also represented by Scott Boras. There are some concerns about Paxton that go beyond the money issue. He has had several injury issues, which have cropped up among Canadian pitchers (see Rich Harden and Eric Bedard, who saw their markets plummet this off-season). As a result, he’s probably going to fall to the back of the first round, unless his stock really rises.
20th Overall – The Boston Red Sox (Compensation For Billy Wagner)
Yordy Cabrera (SS), Florida High School
Cabrera is mentioned with Machado as the top prep shortstop in the 2009 draft class. At the moment, Cabrera shows the ability to play the position, as he shows solid speed and range for the position. He also shows the ability to hit for above average power in the future, especially as he fills out. However, there are some concerns with Cabrera. Some feel that he may lose range and speed as he fills out, requiring a move to third base. He is a fairly large kid, but he has the skills and the arm to do well at third base. My concern is that he doesn’t have great plate discipline, as he’s a bit of a hacker. So strikeouts will likely be a problem as he faces more advanced pitching. All in all, Cabrera projects to be a power hitting third baseman, and he should take off once he improves his discipline and taps into his offensive abilities.
21st Overall – The Minnesota Twins
Nick Castellanos (3B), Florida High School
Castellanos is another prep prospect gaining some early traction. Right now, Castellanos is highly regarded for his ability to hit. He shows the ability to make solid contact, and displays a patient approach at the plate. Castellanos also projects to hit for plus power as he fills out. However, there is also a concern that he’ll not be long at third base as he matures, due to the likelihood that he’ll lose speed and range. Still, he is a fairly safe here. It’s difficult to tell where the Twins will go, so Castellanos will slot here for now.
22th Overall – The Texas Rangers
Austin Wilson (CF), California High School
Wilson is a top flight outfield talent that has been mentioned as a top 20 pick. Wilson has a large frame, and projects to hit for significant power. He also has a strong arm in the outfield. However, Wilson has two big flaws. First, his range will decrease enough as he matures that he’ll have to move to right field. Second, Wilson lacks plate discipline, and will strike out a lot. Overall, though, the talent is here for him to become a run producing outfielder, similar to Jermaine Dye. Because this pick is protected, the Rangers will roll the dice here on Wilson, provided he falls here.
23rd Overall – The Florida Marlins
Dylan Covey (RHP), California High School
The Marlins have taken quite a few high school arms in recent years, and this year figures to be no exception. Covey is a prep arm from California that shows solid potential. He throws a fastball in the mid 90’s with good movement. He also has a solid curveball that gives him a second good offering. Like most prep pitchers, he lacks a changeup, which he’ll need to remain a starter. Still, he has the potential to be a solid middle of the rotation guy, with a chance to become a Number Two Starter if everything works out.
24th Overall – The San Francisco Giants
Kris Bryant (SS/3B), Nevada High School
The Giants have loaded up on pitching these past couple of drafts, but they’ll be out of most of the top prep arms in this draft. While they could go for a quick fix, my guess is that Sabean will continue his newfound appreciation for the draft and add a solid prep. Bryant the opposite of Castellanos. Bryant has the potential to stay at third base, where he shows a strong arm and solid range. He also shows lots of power right now. He isn’t quite the hitter Castellanos is, but overall he’ll provide more value, especially if he’s able to remain at third.
25th Overall – The St. Louis Cardinals
Josh Rutledge (SS), Alabama
Rutledge is another college shortstop in this class. He’s a terrific defender, and should remain there as a pro. He also shows good speed, and runs the bases well. However, it’s his offensive potential that causes some concern. Rutledge shows some raw power, and will likely hit for average as a pro. But he has a long swing that, when coupled with his mediocre plate discipline, will limit his total value as a prospect. If his future team is able to get him to lay off just a bit, he should be an average regular. Overall, I think he goes here, allowing the Cardinals to add a closer to the majors talent that may finally solve their long standing hole at short.
26th Overall – The Colorado Rockies
Bryan Morgado (LHP), Tennessee
A third round pick for the White Sox last year, Morgado instead chose not to sign, and had a great summer season on the Cape. Morgado throws in the low 90’s, touching 95 at times, and he shows a plus power slider that gives him a second out pitch. However, Morgado lacks a third pitch, and his maximum effort delivery makes some wonder if he might be better off in the bullpen. A superb year as the ace of the Volunteers’ staff will silence a lot of critics, but based off of what he did in the Cape, this seems like a decent spot.
27th Overall – The Philadelphia Phillies
Brett Eibner (CF/RHP), Arkansas
The Phillies go for athletes, which is risky in a way, but also results in quite a few high impact prospects. Right now, with the Phillies picking this low, Eibner seems like a solid fit for the Phillies’ M.O. Eibner is an all or nothing hitter that shows huge power, but also a huge swing, and is a capable centerfielder. However, I prefer him as a pitcher. Eibner throws in the low 90’s, touching 94. He also has a cutter that shows some promise. However, Eibner lacks a changeup, and has tinkered with a slider, but neither is even close to being a usable pitch. However, he has showed good fastball command, and it’s possible that with some work, he should be a solid middle of the rotation starter. As I said, the Phillies have had success with this type of player, so I could see him going here.
28th Overall – The Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Blair (RHP), San Diego
Blair was a top prospect coming out of high school, but he failed to come to terms with the Dodgers in the 2007 draft. He has since had a great career at San Diego, and will likely be the Torero’s Friday Night Starter. Blair has an excellent three pitch arsenal. His slider is a plus offering, and he also has a second solid offering in his changeup. His command and control also are solid as well. However, Blair’s fastball clocks in the 89-92 mph range, and while he commands it well, it’s not enough to make him more than perhaps a back of the rotation guy. Blair also had his sophomore year cut short by a bout of shoulder soreness. If he’s able to pitch without it reoccurring, he’s a back of the rotation guy that’s worth a selection in the back of the first round. If the injury also held back his velocity a bit, and his fastball clocks in the 92-94 mph range this year, then Blair could be something more.
29th Overall – The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For John Lackey)
Josh Sale (COF), Washington High School
I’m not really all that wild about high school corner outfielders. Usually, the guy really has to hit or he’s screwed. Sale, however, looks like he’ll do the former. Sale has the potential to develop plus power, and has shown the knoack for making contact. He isn’t a burner, and will likely move over to left field as he matures, but if everything goes well, he could become your classic cleanup hitter.
30th Overall – The Los Angeles Angels
Rick Hague (SS), Rice
Hague has been a steady talent with the Owls for much of his season. He has hit over .300 over both of his years for the Owls, and has shown a good approach at the plate. He has a simple swing that allows him to make solid contact, and he shows the ability to draw a walk. His power projects to be merely average, though he should hit for plenty of doubles. The question is whether or not he’ll remain at shortstop. He has average range there, but there is a general consensus that he’ll have to move. He played third base for Team USA this summer and showed he’d be a solid fit there, but his bat fits more along the lines of second base. Either way, he should be a solid pick, likely in the sandwich round.
31st Overall – The Tampa Bay Rays (Compensation For LeVon Washington)
Kevin Gausman (RHP), Colorado High School
Gausman has been working the showcase circuit his junior year, and has begun to see his name surface as a potential first rounder. He has a projectable frame at 6-4, and shows an average fastball. Baseball America had him throwing in low 90’s at the Area Code Games, but there may be more if he continues to fill out. He does have good movement on his heater. He also shows the makings of an above average curveball and changeup. All in all, a good swing could solidify Gausman near the top of the first round, in particular if he continues to show his good command and he gains a couple of ticks.
32nd Overall – The New York Yankees
A.J. Vanegas (RHP), California High School
Vanegas is another quality prep arm in this draft, though he belongs in the second tier. He throws in the low 90’s, and has a pair of solid breaking pitches. He throws a solid curveball, and shows some feel for a slider. Vanegas also has a thick build which draws some comparisons to Mark Prior. Ironically, Vanegas’ delivery also reminds others of Prior because it places a lot of stress on his elbow. Vanegas will drop in this draft because of his commitment to Stanford, which is notoriously difficult to sign away players from. Still, look for the Yankees to make him an offer he can’t refuse.
Who is Josh Rutledge for Alabama? You mean, Josh Wilson right?
Posted by: Bill | March 30, 2010 at 07:55 AM
This guy:
http://www.rolltide.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/rutledge_josh00.html
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