Stealing Home - A Baseball Blog By Morisato

Oakland Off To A Running Start This Off-Season

Oakland looks like they’re going to make a run at the American League West this season, and have already begun their plans to revamp what was an offense that was arguably one of the worst in baseball last season.  To start, they traded young right hander Vin Mazarro and lefty prospect Justin Marks for David DeJesus.

DeJesus batted .318/.384/.443 in 394 plate appearances with the Royals this year, and probably would have been traded at this past trade deadline had he not torn a ligament in his right thumb that cost him the remainder of his 2010 season.  However, DeJesus is a highly valuable player when healthy, as he can play all three outfield positions, but is best suited to left field due to his arm strength.  He’s a solid hitter that does a decent job of getting on base, and will hit for modest power, though it won’t likely show up this season due to the hand injury.  Such things tend to linger for at least a year or so after the original damage was done.  DeJesus, however, does get a little overrated in terms of his ceiling.  He’s constantly hyped to be a 20/20 guy, but has never come close to that in his career.  Plus, his speed has diminished a bit as he’s gotten older, which doesn’t bode well for the fact that he’s an inefficient base stealer.  Still, he is a solid second hitter to have in your lineup, and Oakland didn’t give up too much.  While Mazarro is a young, controllable asset, he was also the most expendable of Oakland’s young pitchers.  He didn’t have the ace upside of Brett Anderson, nor anything particularly special that distinguished him from Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, or Dallas Braden.  With the addition of Hisashi Iwakuma, whom Oakland will likely bring over from Japan, it’s hard to see a place for Mazarro in Okalnd’s long term plans.

DeJesus will add another player to what is already a largely crowded outfield in Oakland with Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp, Ryan Sweeney, Conor Jackson and Jack Cust.  However, I expect the Athletics to start DeJesus in left, Crisp in center, and Sweeney in right field, with Davis as the fourth outfielder.  Cust is likely going to be non-tendered, as will Jackson if Oakland doesn’t find a taker for his services.

As for the Royals, the big name is Mazzaro, who can be a solid back of the rotation starter in time.  A big concern about Mazzaro is that he lost a couple of ticks off his fastball, which isn’t a good sign for a guy that didn’t have a big fastball to begin with.  He throws a rather flat slider as his secondary pitch.  Mazarro also has a curveball and a changeup, but neither looked impressive when I saw him against the Rangers this season.  His main issue is command, as it’s terrible, and while he posted a 4.12 ERA this past season, his BABIP was fairly low, and due for an adjustment.  If he can improve his control, he might be a solid Number Three.  As for Marks, I know absolutely nothing about him, so I’ll quote Keith Law here:

Marks is a solid inventory prospect but doesn't compare well to the plethora of left-handed pitching prospects in Kansas City's system. He'll show a solid-average fastball and a fringy slider, but his changeup remains fringy and right-handed hitters hit him well in 2010. He shut down lefties well enough that he could probably have a solid career as a left-handed specialist if nothing else improves. He was old for Kane County this year and didn't pitch especially well.

All in all, it’s a solid deal for both teams.  The Royals get someone that can at least be serviceable behind Grienke and Hochevar with plenty of club control left.  However, I do wonder if the Royals could have gotten something a little sexier than Mazzaro, who was probably the most expendable of Oakland’s young pitchers.  As for DeJesus, he’s a upgrade in left field, but won’t answer Oakland’s offensive problems alone. 

To add some more punch to their lineup, Oakland also picked up third baseman Edwin Encarnacion from Toronto.  Encarnacion is a horrible defensive third baseman, and has a lot of swing and miss in his game.  However, when he does make contact, the ball usually goes far.  He hit.244/.305/.482 with 20 home runs for the Jays last year, though he was awful enough during some stretches that he was actually designated for assignment, then brought back.  He’s only a one year rental, and will likely get a raise in arbitration this off-season.  Overall, Encarnacion will add some thunder, at the cost of some defense and on base ability.  He’s not going to be the focus of the Athletics offense, but I fully expect them to acquire someone else to DH and hit in the heart of the lineup next year, so we shall see.  This move also means that current third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is likely going to get non-tendered.  It’s a shame, as Kouzmanoff has turned into a tolerable third baseman that hits with some power.  He’ll be a solid addition to someone else’s squad, and will be had for likely pennies on the dollar.

Overall, though, Billy Beane is gearing up for another run at the division, though I do wonder about the future of this franchise.  With a bad stadium deal, a fairly thrifty ownership, and a community that frankly is justified in not wanting to pony up tax payer dollars so the Athletics can get rich on their dime, it's no wonder that many feel that this latest Oakland rebuilding project is going to be fairly shortlived at best.

World Series Ranger Thoughts

Not much I can say about the Rangers’ Victory in the 2010 American League Championship that other writers like Jamey Newberg haven’t already written.

What I will say is this:

Wow!

Since I first became a Rangers fan back in 1990 at the age of 9, I’ve been hoping and praying that one day, I could say the following words.

Texas Rangers.  World Series.

In one sentence. 

But it’s happened.  The Texas Rangers will be in the World Series.

The only real time that I can remember the Rangers being possible contenders was during the briefy "dynasty" period of the late 90's, when the Rangers ran roughshod over their division (much like the Angels of the past decade), only to be destroyed by the Yankees once the playoffs began (much like the Angels were by the Red Sox).  And even then, that dynasty wouldn't last, mostly due to a poor farm system, a concentration on offense while hoping that a series of innings eaters would support that lineup, and a front office that, while respected, might not have been up to the task of finding a way to continually contend (witness the Milwaukee Brewers' progression and regression under Doug Melvin.) 

Then came the dark times of the Hicks' ownership, where nothing seemed to go right, as the Rangers spent and spent, but saw little return on their investment.  Alex Rodriguez began Chan Ho Park and Todd Van Popple, and several other bad deals, as well as the fall of a Ranger legend in Rusty Greer.  While there was a brief glimmer of hope in 2004, that would only turn out to be a mirage as the team regressed under the post-Melvin management, that was so wrought with intrigue, back door politics, and betrayal that was only seen as the product of a Roman Imperial Court.  Hicks did the franchise no favors, and singlehandedly set back the Rangers brand years as attendance dwindled and the Rangers became a mere punchline in the eyes of the national baseball fan.

However, Hicks did bring aboard the pieces that allowed the Rangers to return to prominence.  He hired Jon Daniels, who began the rebuilding process, though it did have some rocky beginnings at first.  He brought back Nolan Ryan as team president, which added a sort of credibility to the Rangers, as well as set up the current ownership of the Rangers.  And for that, some measure of thanks should be given to Hicks.

It looks like the Rangers will remain a player in the national scene, with a steady ownership, promising front office, as well as new cash flow that will come in, allowing Texas to sign and retain their own free agents, and continue to invest heavily in the draft.

It may not last.  For all I know, the Rangers will combust into flames next season. 

However, as all franchises do, we have our history.  We have our memories, our stories that we pass on to the younger fans. 

And what we are witnessing is that.  History.  Memories to be made.  And a story to tell.

But the ending hasn't been written for the 2010 Texas Rangers.

Let's hope it's a great one.

Quick post today, as I'm working for a boatload of stuff for tommorrw.
Yesterday morning, I felt doom and gloom.
Last night, I shouted so loud that I woke my neighbors.
If people ask why, why do people invest so much time and energy in following a team, it's for moments like this.
It's been a while since I've felt so much joy during a Rangers season. And the ride is only going to continue, as Texas advances to it's first ALCS, and against a familiar playoff foe: the New York Yankees.
I'm not going to make a prediction. I'm just going to enjoy the ride.
Go Rangers!

Rangers Claim Ryan Tucker, Bid Harden Farewell

Great win for the Rangers today, who steal homefield advantage from Tampa Bay and now get ready to send out C.J. Wilson, who they hope will replicate Lee's performance. 

Lost amongst the fanfare is that the Rich Harden ended today with not a bang, but a whimper, as he was designated for assignment to make room for Ryan Tucker.  Harden's fate was sealed for months, so we won't cover him.  Instead, we'll cover Tucker. 

Tucker is a former first round pick that throws in the high 90's, but doesn't throw anything else, it seems.  The Marlins hoped he would become a front line starter, but gave up on that idea this season and moved him to the pen, where he was awful in his first go of it. 

Texas has long been enamored with Tucker, having targeted him in a possible swap of Max Ramirez a few years ago.  Now, they get him for nothing, and hope he can harness his potential to become a lights out setup man, and future closer.

Nice to see management is still doing it's work, even as they rightfully bask in the Rangers' second ever post-season win in the franchise's history.

It's a good day to be a Ranger fan.

Go Rangers!  Good luck, C.J. Wilson.

Five National League East Prospects On The Bubble

Today, we'll take a look at the National League East guys on the bubble.

• Atlanta Braves - Jordan Schafer (CF).  Schafer was once ranked the 25th best prospect in baseball by Baseball American in 2008, and still made the list at 42 in 2009.  However, much of the luster has worn off of him.  Beginning with a PED suspension in 2008, Schafer then had a disappointing major league debut in 2009, which ended with him returning to the minors in May.  He suffered a wrist injury this season that has sapped his power and left him looking helpless at the plate.  At a time when he could have had a quick trip back to the show, when Braves centerfielders were looking awful, Schafer couldn't capitalize on the opportunity.  Stepping into 2011, this may be a make or break year for him, as the Braves are unlikely going to sit and wait on him to figure things out much longer.
• Florida Marlins - Andrew Miller (LHP).    It's been a long time since Miller resembled the blue chip prospect that was rumored to be the top college lefty in the NCAA.  Miller, along with outfielder Cameron Maybin, were the big prizes in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis trade.  While Miller has shown flashes of dominance, his command has just never developed, and has held him back.  With him now out of options, the Marlins need to think hard about whether or not Miller is worth keeping on the major league roster, or if they'll try to sneak him through waivers to the minors. 
• New York Mets - Fernando Martinez (CF).  Long an inhabitant on the Mets' lists of top prospects, Martinez simply hasn't stayed healthy long enough to turn his physical tools into performance.  Martinez has also been needlessly rushed throughout his career by the Mets, and has consistently been among the youngest players in each level he's been in.  My opinion is that Martinez was accelerated too quickly, and ultimately paid the price for it.  It's too bad.  Had the Mets been patient, Martinez could have provided a potential succession plan for Carlos Beltran.  Now, I'm not so sure that he'll be able to.  With a new regime coming in, Martinez could find himself flipped for a piece to help the Mets rebuild.
• Philadelphia Phillies - Scott Mathieson (RHP).  A survivor of two Tommy John surgeries, Mathieson looked like he would finally contribute to the Phillies, but instead got hurt after posting an impressive season in Triple A.  The Phillies have shown little inclination to use Mathieson and have actually designated him for assingment twice.  While Mathieson shows incredible heat, his injury history is just so awful that one wonders if he'll ever stay healthy long enough to get a shot.  He's currently learning a splitter from Bruce Sutter (more on him in a later post), but you have to wonder how much more patience the Phillies will show..
• Washington Nationals - Ross Detwiler (LHP).  Needless to say, Detwiler's recent performances weren't what the Nationals expected after selecting him with the sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft (over Rick Porcello, Brett Cecil, Madison Bumgarner, and most notably, Jason Heyward.)  Detwiler was once billed as a hard throwing lefty who could blossom into a Number Two starter, but has since seen his fastball velocity decline to about 90 mph, likely due to his recent hip injury.  Detwiler is probably safe, with Washington needing quality innings, but he needs to rediscover his command, as well as his velocity, for him to last a while in this league.

Tomorrow:  The National League Central!

Four American League West Former Prospects On The Bubble

Newly returned from Vegas, we complete our trip around the American League:

• Los Angeles Angels – Brandon Wood (3B).  Once regarded to be among the most elite of prospects, Wood's star has fallen hard since his breakout season in 2005 for Rancho Cucamonga.  In reality, his MVP caliber season should have been more heavily scrutinized.  Wood was producing in a extreme hitters league, and his K to Walk Ration was almost three to one.  He hasn't improved it lately, and his numbers in the minors since then have been much more pedestrian.  While the Angels are typically reluctant to give their youngsters extended shots unless given reason to, (witness their treatment of Kendry Morales, who seems highly unlikely to give the Angels a sweetheart of an extension for all that time they wanted to roll with Casey Kotchman at first base), Wood hasn't given them much reason to regret their treatment of him.  With Maicer Izturis to return next season, plus the Angels' rumored lust for Adrian Beltre, Wood's days are numbered.
• Oakland Athletics – Travis Buck (RF).  Buck was once deemed to be an outfielder in the mold of Texas Ranger near diety Rusty Greer.  And in his rookie year in 2008, he certainly looked the part.  However, Buck had been rushed to the majors, having jumped from Double A to Oakland, and once he got hurt, he was never able to regain momentum.  Between injuries, inconsistency, and the rise of several other outfielders in the Bay, there isn't room for Buck anymore.  With his options exhausted, look for him to be dealt for almost nothing, or non-tendered. 
• Seattle Mariners - Justin Smoak (1B).  Smoak has shown the ability to work the count, but hasn't shown a lot of the power that made him such a high prospect in the first place.  His weakness against left handers, which a minor note a year ago, is now a concern.  While he's hit better since returning to the majors in September, he'll need to continue to mash if he's to justify the Cliff Lee trade in the eyes of the organization.  The acquisition of Josh Lueke, whose criminal history was shockingly not known at the time of the acquisition, has created quite a bit of fire on an organization that doesn't need any more bad press.
• Texas Rangers – Chris Davis (1B).  Taylor Teagarden was my first choice, but it occured to me that he could have a long career as a backup.  After some thinking, I realized that Davis was the obvious choice.  The only reason why I hadn't thought about him is that he has been virtually invisible this season.  Davis, along with Smoak, once gave Ranger fans dreams of a slugging middle of the order that was reminiscent of the Bash Brothers.  However, that hasn’t come to pass.  Smoak disappointed, then got traded, and Davis has disappointed.  While he can be a tolerable defensive first or third baseman, Davis' issues come from that fact that he is doing his best imitation of a wind turbine at the plate.  With Mitch Moreland's star rising in the organization, and a bumper crop of first baseman available this off-season, Davis may be in trouble.

Tomorrow:  The National League East

Fivee American League Central Former Prospects On The Bubble

 Continuing my look at former prospects that are currently on the respective bubbles with their organizations, in my opinion:

• Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo (3B).  I was tempted to go with Tyler Flowers here, but Viciedo took the “honor” the more and more I thought about it.  Since signing a major league deal for $10 million last year, Viciedo has proven to be a lot less than advertised. He's shown almost no ability to draw a walk, and he's a lot less athletic than I thought he'd be.  More than likely, he'll be moved to first base, or even designated hitter, and will have to do at least a passible job of trying to draw a walk if he's going to have a future. 
• Cleveland Indians - Matt LaPorta (1B).  LaPorta was a highly regarded prospect when he was drafted by the Brewers back in 2007.  The Brewers would sent him to Cleveland a year later as the big prize in the C.C. Sabathia trade.  Since then, LaPorta has gotten numerous opportunities to entrench himself as the Indians' future starter at first base, but hasn't delievered.  In fact, he's been downright awful.  He's sporting a career .233/.309/.701 triple slash line, while looking downright foolish against off-speed stuff.  Combined with the fact that he is doing his best to channel his inner Adam Dunn on defense, and that package of prospects recieved from Milwaukee looks even worse.
• Detriot Tigers - Rick Porcello (RHP).  I know this looks odd, especially since Porcello has been a lot better since coming back up from the minors.  But I can't help but think that this isn't the Porcello we should be seeing.  Let's review, shall we?  Porcello, when he was drafted, was projected to be an elite pitcher, similar to Josh Beckett.  However, Porcello signed a major league contract, which would rush his development due to the fact that he would be burning through his major league options.  Boras likely viewed this as a positive, as it would allow Porcello to spend less time in the minors, and reach free agency sooner.  Instead, I think Porcello has stagnated, becoming a groundball pitcher.  Porcello is a nice pitcher, and it's astounding that he's reached the majors already at a young age.  But this isn't who Detroit thought they were getting.
• Kansas City Royals – Alex Gordon (LF).  Since arriving to Kansas City in 2007 with the hopes that he would become the next George Brett, Gordon has thoroughly disappointed in his major league time.  His defense at third base was bad enough that he required a move to left field, where it was hoped that an easier defensive position would allow his bat to bloom.  It hasn’t worked.  With the arrival of Matt Moustakas imminent, the Royals can’t move back Gordon to third, and David DeJesus will return next season, blocking off left field.  Even more troubling for Gordon’s future is that K.C. is waiting for Texas to non-tender Jeff Francouer after the season.  Gordon is out of options, I believe, so Kansas City will have to decide if they’ll carry him as a bench player, or look to pass him through waivers.  Personally, I think that he would get claimed, which might be best for all the parties concerned.
• Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla (INF).  Casilla was thought to be the franchises future at second base, or shortstop.  Instead, Casilla really hasn't done much other than hit for a decent average some years, while showing little in terms of secondary skills.  Casilla's poor play, combined with the franchise's infatuation with Nick Punto, has led the the organization playing some horrible second base options, which were finally solved for a year with the Twins going out and getting Orlando Hudson.

Monday: The American League West

Five American League East Former Prospects On The Bubble

Every year, there are former blue chip prospects that face the reality that they either have to deliver on their blue chip status, or whatever made them noteworthy to begin with, or face the possibility of hammering out a living in the high minors, hoping for the occassional non-roster deal that results in them spending some time on the major league 25 man roster.  So, with that, here are five AL East former prospects that face questions in terms of their big league future in 2011:

• Baltimore Orioles – Brad Bergesen (RHP).  Bergesen has been mediocre this season, but in reality, he was due for some regression.  Bergesen wasn't a highly regarded prospect, doesn't throw particularly hard, and also had several other players that would be rapidly chasing him down in the Orioles' future plans.  With Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, as well as Guthrie already slated in the rotation, with Zach Britton looking to break on through next season, Bergesen's future is tenuous at best.  The Orioles could move him into the bullpen, but with so many other needs on this team, he could provide some valuable trade bait in the off-season.
• Boston Red Sox – Jacoby Ellsbury (CF).  Ellsbury is looking more and more like he's played his last game in Fenway Park.  Ellsbury originally was cast as the next coming of Johnny Damon in some baseball magazines (I have the article, if you don't believe me.)  However, despite a exceptional 2007 post-season that turned him into a bit of a cult hero in Boston, he never quite blossomed into that impact player many pegged him to be.  He was poor enough in centerfield that the Red Sox replaced him with Mike Cameron, moving him to left field.  Since then, injures have killed his season, and with him entering arbitration, Ryan Kalish challenging for a spot, as well as the Red Sox contemplating signing Jayson Werth in right, Ellsbury could be sent elsewhere. 
• New York Yankees – Joba Chamberlain (RHP) – Chamberlain takes Brandon Morrow's former handle as the most mishandled prospect in baseball.  Since his sensational debut in 2008, Chamerlain was yanked back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation.  And while the Yankees attempted to limit his innings in order to ease his transition, their constant waffling between what his future role should be wound up doing more harm than good.  Chamberlain, in my opinion, needs to get out of New York, go to another city that will make up it's mind whether or not to develop him as a starter, and commit to the decision.  However, the Yankees know that Chamberlain's value is low, and resisted the Blue Jays' inquiries of him for fear of seeing him blossoming like another mishandled prospect, Brandon Morrow, and haunting them in the future.  I would love to see what a quality pitching coach like Mike Maddux, Dave Duncan, or even San Diego manager Bud Black could do with him, if given the opportunity to work with him.  Unfortunately, New York will demand full value for Chamberlain, and that could inhibit any potential deal that would liberate him from New York's boileroom atmosphere.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Jeff Niemann (RHP).  Unlike these other players, Niemann seems likely to continue being a productive major leaguer.  However, expectations have to be changed since he has came down a bit from his outstanding Rookie season. Overall, his numbers are largely the same, but Niemann has also been rather ordinary since he finally arrived in the league after spending four years in the minors either hurt or ineffective.  Niemann isn't the front of the rotation starter he onces was in college, and has become rather ordinary as a pitcher.  He's still fairly cheap, and that has value.  But with Tampa Bay looking to trade a pitcher, and superior options like David Price, James Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson looking to break in, Niemann could be shopped to find other needs.  Plus, of the starters I just named, Niemann's past health issues would cause some worry for me, if I were Tampa's front office. 
• Toronto Blue Jays – Travis Snider (LF).  Snider has been okay in the major league level, but while his power is manifesting itself a bit, his plate discipline has regressed.  Combine that with his poor defensive value, and you have to wonder if Snider might take a little longer to develop, or become a sort of Mark Reynolds type of player in left field. 

Tomorrow:  The AL Central And AL West, Due To Me Being On Vacation

Not Too Thrilled About Towers In Arizona

Kevin Towers was hired yesterday as the manager of the San Diego Padres.  It's a decent hire, and one that should get the media enthused about the future of the Diamondbacks.  But I'd be cautious about showing too much optimism, if I were a Diamondback fan.

For starters, for months now, Arizona has been stressing that the reason why they fired Josh Byrnes as a General Manager was due to the fact that the big league club was disappointing, and that they lacked any sort of top shelf prospects in the farm system.  They wanted to rectify that, which is why they traded Edwin Jackson, Dan Haren, and others for more prospects. 

Towers' history in San Diego, in terms of farm products, is fairly dismal.  Since Towers was first made General Manager in 1995, his most successful players that have come out his farm system from the first five rounds have been:

• Chase Headley (2nd Round, 2005)
• Xavier Nady (2nd Round, 2000)
• Khalil Greene (1st Round, 2002)

And yes, while you can credit him getting Jake Peavy in the 15th round back in 1999, you also have to realize that Towers passed over superior talents in the first round for milder college talents that were more affordable, but had less upside.  If the Diamondbacks had really wanted a General Manager that emphasized a strong farm system, and would continue to build it from within while contending, they should have retained Mike Rizzo, who is largely responsible for the brightest parts of the current Diamondback team that is taking the field.

In fact, most of the players from Towers' teams often came from other organizations, be it by trade or free agency.   Towers had a talent for finding other teams' undervalued assets, like Phil Nevin from the Tigers, Adrian Gonzalez from Texas, and Xavier Nady and Heath Bell from the Mets.  However, it also should be noted that Towers was also more enamored with other teams' assets than some of his own.  Towers inherited a couple of good players, Derrek Lee and Matt Clement, that he would later trade away, plus gave away what would later be a king's ransom of talent when he gave up Jason Bay and Oliver Perez to Pittsburgh for Brian Giles, whose power would evaporate once he arrived to PETCO. 

Towers' also has gained a reputation for finding excellent relief help off the scrapheap.  While I shall admit that he had a talent for finding certain pitchers that he knew had the potential to succeed if give a fair shake, I also have to point to the fact that PETCO had a hand in this also well. 

And while one is more than willing to point to the Padres winning the division four times in his tenure, plus their 1998 World Series appearance, it should be noted that Padres have also fielded sub-.500 squads nine times in his 15 year tenure, with a five year stretch from 1999 to 2004 that I'm surprised didn't cost him his job.  And in that period of time, the farm system was fairly barren, with San Diego relying on free agent products and trades to try and build a squad.

In reality, I think Towers will likely be a middle of the pack guy.  It'll be interesting to watch him wheel and deal his first season in Arizona, as he tries to acquire pieces from which he can try to cobble together a rotation and less strikeout prone lineup.  I think you'll probably see Mark Reynolds dealt, with Stephen Drew shopped around for pitching depth.  All in all, though, Towers won't be the savior that the Diamondbacks originally planned for. 

Werth Worth It For Boston (For The First Three Years)

With the Red Sox's season pretty much over, it seems that fans and management alike are turning the page to 2011.  And in his most recent column, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald feels that the Red Sox should look into acquiring Phillies rightfielder Jayson Werth.

The appeal isn't hard to see.  Werth is a excellent player, providing a potential right handed power source that also plays a solid right field.  While Scott Boras is already hyping Werth's potential in centerfield, I personally wouldn't play him there due to his prior history of knee problems.  Still, the question has to be asked, is there room for Werth?

Boston has three outfielders under contract for next season:  Mike Cameron (owed $7.75 million), J.D. "The Iron Man" Drew ($14 million), and Jacoby Ellsbury (first year of arbitration, let's say it pays him a cool million or so).  That's also not including Joshua Reddick and Ryan Kalish, two promising young outfielders that could contribute.

So the question is, can the Red Sox make room for Werth?

The answer is yes, with the right moves.

For starters, the Red Sox can create space by moving Jacoby Ellsbury.  While his value is at a all time low right now, there would be some takers for an affordable left fielder for next season.  The Red Sox could then move Drew to left field, allowing the more agile Werth to man Fenway’s spacious right field. 

Then, when 2011 passes, Drew and Cameron are allowed to leave via free agency, allowing Reddick and Kalish to slot into the outfield, or allows the Red Sox to obtain a second outfielder via trade. 

In terms of a short term fix, it sounds great.  The Red Sox would have a solid right handed bat in the middle of their lineup, and wouldn’t suffer defensively from it.  However, there are some concerns about Werth that should be worth mentioning (no pun intended).

For starters, Werth will be entering the free agent market at the age of 31, meaning that he’s in his prime now and likely won’t improve beyond what he’s doing now.  Second, he’s going to want to break the bank on his current contract, as this is his only shot of cashing in.  With Scott Boras already tossing out Matt Holliday as a comparison, it’s safe to say that any contract will be between 6 or 7 years. 

Third, my question is just how long Werth can stay productive.  He’s a fairly late bloomer, as he was rather useless until his began his career with the Phillies.  This may be a bit of an apples and oranges comparison, but his career strikes me a bit like Travis Hafner, another late bloomer whose peak collapsed earlier than expected.  While Werth is much more athletic than Hafner, it’s a nagging comparison that just won’t leave the back of my mind.

Maybe Werth will age gracefully.  Maybe he won’t.  But if the Red Sox are seeking to upgrade their lineup, they could do a lot worse than Werth.  In my opinion, he’ll more than justify the loss of a first round draft pick and the first three years will be more than worth it.  It’s the last two or three years of his contract that, I feel, the Red Sox will regret their investment.